Recorded before kickoff
The first forecast record
The public record begins with the first 16 Week 1 forecasts and grows from there. None is scored yet because the games have not been played.
A probability is not a promise. A favourite can lose without the number being dishonest. Judge forecasts across a large sample, not by one game.
272forecasts recorded
7,276historical test games
10.1%Brier skill vs. base rate
1.1%calibration error
| Kickoff (UTC) | Game | Model favours | Win probability | Row hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA | SEA | 71.0% | a28b4f51c5ef | |
| SF at LA | LA | 66.6% | 9ba797934525 | |
| CHI at CAR | CHI | 61.6% | b5a4f983e548 | |
| TB at CIN | CIN | 56.2% | bfbdafcc13f5 | |
| NO at DET | DET | 76.6% | 763c6925c333 | |
| BUF at HOU | HOU | 56.2% | 70b2d6e23081 | |
| BAL at IND | BAL | 57.4% | 70bdf585ce1d | |
| CLE at JAX | JAX | 80.2% | fb2892b5bb37 | |
| ATL at PIT | PIT | 63.2% | 13b9eca95487 | |
| NYJ at TEN | TEN | 56.0% | 9dd3fa47bef7 | |
| ARI at LAC | LAC | 78.1% | f263357e2679 | |
| MIA at LV | MIA | 63.0% | 9838060ce800 | |
| GB at MIN | MIN | 61.0% | 7d91de1c65c4 | |
| WAS at PHI | PHI | 73.3% | 064495fe8b50 | |
| DAL at NYG | NYG | 51.1% | b13f8ef88111 | |
| DEN at KC | DEN | 63.9% | ca94e6147c63 | |
| DET at BUF | BUF | 65.1% | 119972808801 | |
| CAR at ATL | ATL | 64.6% | a714dbaaa768 | |
| NO at BAL | BAL | 74.7% | c2e3a49b244a | |
| MIN at CHI | CHI | 52.3% | b71b422c06a8 | |
| CIN at HOU | HOU | 77.2% | f3d3dfbdd6af | |
| PIT at NE | NE | 71.2% | 1f42d3ac5bca | |
| GB at NYJ | GB | 73.0% | 33916b24185d | |
| CLE at TB | TB | 67.7% | 0f04366aa716 | |
| PHI at TEN | PHI | 78.1% | 8eaa833633f8 | |
| JAX at DEN | DEN | 63.8% | cdbbafca5bb0 | |
| LV at LAC | LAC | 83.7% | 8425d78f6699 | |
| SEA at ARI | SEA | 86.9% | 59d90f2a0b01 | |
| WAS at DAL | DAL | 55.5% | 1e4f10e4f5cc | |
| MIA at SF | SF | 73.3% | da92df342a88 | |
| IND at KC | KC | 61.1% | a22fbf83e1cc | |
| NYG at LA | LA | 84.4% | d689da9d36a8 | |
| ATL at GB | GB | 66.6% | 9436cb1d1464 | |
| LAC at BUF | BUF | 70.5% | 151fb32fcb8e | |
| CAR at CLE | CLE | 55.1% | b36c06da025d | |
| NYJ at DET | DET | 85.9% | 6aa4b53b5e9f | |
| HOU at IND | HOU | 67.6% | f49122d7403d | |
| NE at JAX | JAX | 51.9% | 1d1cfbed5295 | |
| KC at MIA | KC | 50.3% | 33fbc2926a97 | |
| TEN at NYG | NYG | 68.8% | 3c6623a23336 | |
| CIN at PIT | PIT | 62.1% | 49a3730ae244 | |
| SEA at WAS | SEA | 79.4% | b420ab387441 | |
| ARI at SF | SF | 81.5% | 710eb76ded8c | |
| MIN at TB | MIN | 56.3% | ffc4d0555d5f | |
| BAL at DAL | BAL | 60.0% | b4d569e01856 | |
| LV at NO | NO | 72.0% | 6619cc44d7fb | |
| LA at DEN | DEN | 56.1% | 898d66a0ce0e | |
| PHI at CHI | CHI | 50.7% | d8735ddb1d27 | |
| PIT at CLE | PIT | 59.8% | c07417198df8 | |
| IND at WAS | WAS | 55.3% | ba8af0c4ee38 | |
| TEN at BAL | BAL | 84.9% | 950c63eee643 | |
| NE at BUF | BUF | 59.2% | 34c3e8d8cd0d | |
| NYJ at CHI | CHI | 82.5% | 93178accd2e0 | |
| JAX at CIN | JAX | 59.6% | c828525284aa | |
| DAL at HOU | HOU | 80.2% | 3e48060bdcf7 | |
| ARI at NYG | NYG | 62.2% | 060657e9b546 | |
| LA at PHI | LA | 52.5% | 9abf6be19924 | |
| GB at TB | GB | 51.9% | f3c4ad96df54 | |
| MIA at MIN | MIN | 73.0% | 4138aeea8c07 | |
| KC at LV | KC | 69.4% | 8ae0284769cd | |
| LAC at SEA | SEA | 80.4% | 3b9a712928d5 | |
| DEN at SF | DEN | 53.0% | 3abe5c87c391 | |
| DET at CAR | DET | 67.1% | bf38176cc238 | |
| ATL at NO | NO | 50.4% | 4a88cccda48b | |
| TB at DAL | DAL | 51.9% | b97ec67a07c3 | |
| PHI at JAX | JAX | 58.0% | d31fa328a4ff | |
| CIN at MIA | MIA | 52.5% | 670e7b0b6f81 | |
| LV at NE | NE | 89.8% | 9202dd740cc9 | |
| MIN at NO | MIN | 64.1% | cebdaa6925b7 | |
| CLE at NYJ | CLE | 54.2% | f3ef7c36b97a | |
| IND at PIT | PIT | 63.7% | 9e372ec11fdf | |
| HOU at TEN | HOU | 83.4% | bdcc3b52b778 | |
| NYG at WAS | WAS | 63.4% | b3dccde1b0c4 | |
| DEN at LAC | DEN | 58.1% | 48b52be713a0 | |
| DET at ARI | DET | 72.4% | 3a94567ea166 | |
| CHI at GB | GB | 56.9% | 240a88e5b41d | |
| SF at SEA | SEA | 76.8% | 41f2d49fea4d | |
| BAL at ATL | BAL | 56.9% | 4e951392cef5 | |
| BUF at LA | LA | 57.3% | fe76ed22400b | |
| SEA at DEN | SEA | 56.2% | 1c106e1d0e80 | |
| HOU at JAX | HOU | 50.1% | 7d17199f6cf6 | |
| CHI at ATL | CHI | 53.6% | d732d573a91a | |
| BAL at CLE | BAL | 66.4% | 5b62d63b1e2d | |
| TEN at IND | IND | 75.6% | 068b5cdfc2a7 | |
| NYJ at NE | NE | 88.9% | 72b3795afde5 | |
| NO at NYG | NYG | 54.3% | 8b9b00cc7124 | |
| CAR at PHI | PHI | 78.1% | a7cb5f41659b | |
| PIT at TB | TB | 51.7% | 02273f96367d | |
| ARI at LA | LA | 87.4% | d6a1a2196362 | |
| LAC at KC | KC | 50.7% | d687b924ba61 | |
| BUF at LV | BUF | 84.5% | 7231eae7fc12 | |
| DAL at GB | GB | 69.4% | c027b64c5f23 | |
| WAS at SF | SF | 72.4% | 28e684cfe5ff | |
| NE at CHI | NE | 55.4% | b2542d3e7e96 | |
| PIT at NO | PIT | 56.3% | 4d42189d1e74 | |
| SF at ATL | SF | 58.4% | 04ecafc029ef | |
| CIN at BAL | BAL | 68.4% | 6a6dafe6dbad | |
| TB at CAR | TB | 53.3% | 90f9e7a46ae1 | |
| NYG at HOU | HOU | 83.8% | 07aa5465c513 | |
| IND at MIN | MIN | 70.8% | 25926d875c7d | |
| MIA at NYJ | MIA | 61.0% | 00ee3200b248 | |
| CLE at TEN | CLE | 55.0% | a184dcfbe050 | |
| DEN at ARI | DEN | 79.1% | a04f93fd0a24 | |
| GB at DET | DET | 62.3% | 40737d1e1ec3 | |
| LA at LV | LA | 84.9% | 06db1f7393c9 | |
| KC at SEA | SEA | 84.1% | 0912e4d9d9b1 | |
| DAL at PHI | PHI | 74.3% | 99ba49dd5b9b | |
| CAR at GB | GB | 73.7% | f58da259dc3e | |
| BAL at BUF | BUF | 67.4% | 8fd062d441ce | |
| TEN at CIN | CIN | 76.9% | 191dd7fad93c | |
| ARI at DAL | DAL | 67.4% | 832205b86bad | |
| MIN at DET | DET | 58.1% | 11941efca276 | |
| IND at JAX | JAX | 73.2% | a36608bc9254 | |
| LV at NYJ | NYJ | 58.8% | fcd8136923c6 | |
| CLE at PIT | PIT | 72.0% | 0b20f7729db6 | |
| ATL at TB | TB | 58.4% | 199f294220e6 | |
| LAC at LA | LA | 71.1% | cd27da4b926c | |
| KC at DEN | DEN | 75.4% | 96266482bb7f | |
| NE at MIA | NE | 68.1% | cdce5bce9c7e | |
| PHI at WAS | PHI | 61.4% | 750c0ac65fd2 | |
| CHI at SEA | SEA | 80.2% | b2e490e36726 | |
| JAX at BAL | BAL | 52.8% | 3cf336087574 | |
| CIN at ATL | ATL | 55.5% | 959d594c89af | |
| DEN at CAR | DEN | 74.5% | 97d872b88103 | |
| DAL at IND | IND | 59.3% | f0b60c6c8058 | |
| NYJ at KC | KC | 78.4% | 8c91d2a4c2a3 | |
| DET at MIA | DET | 62.3% | b3e7957b0833 | |
| CLE at NO | NO | 60.2% | 1d7008f57b73 | |
| NYG at PHI | PHI | 78.5% | 4ed2edb081df | |
| LA at WAS | LA | 69.8% | 5c222f097fea | |
| HOU at LAC | HOU | 57.6% | ddc84ca9c605 | |
| LV at SF | SF | 86.4% | e4da28dc8e2a | |
| GB at NE | NE | 68.1% | 76f2f971bbae | |
| ARI at SEA | SEA | 92.3% | 041cfa1c6ccf | |
| TB at CHI | CHI | 64.9% | b06efad3dee7 | |
| BUF at MIN | BUF | 53.5% | d5274ee0deab | |
| WAS at NYG | WAS | 50.1% | c0d91b2f8a23 | |
| NE at DET | DET | 50.4% | 5f469ed1cd38 | |
| KC at ATL | ATL | 52.7% | 2253310850ed | |
| HOU at CLE | HOU | 75.4% | c49bc88f7857 | |
| MIN at GB | GB | 52.4% | c6cf310c4419 | |
| MIA at IND | IND | 59.2% | 331f11e3d447 | |
| CAR at NO | NO | 58.6% | 91121fe4c1a7 | |
| BUF at NYJ | BUF | 83.3% | f67a66fa970f | |
| JAX at TEN | JAX | 79.0% | 4637077694b5 | |
| LA at ARI | LA | 79.6% | 76bd21779443 | |
| SEA at LV | SEA | 90.6% | 68d7ceddbef5 | |
| SF at DAL | SF | 61.4% | 8f0834438cd7 | |
| PIT at CIN | CIN | 51.2% | 2cd7d54cfe01 | |
| LAC at BAL | BAL | 60.2% | 9dbe45f8b1cf | |
| IND at HOU | HOU | 78.4% | 06a1a513e289 | |
| MIA at BUF | BUF | 80.5% | f3b125211c48 | |
| BAL at CAR | BAL | 64.8% | 590633222e28 | |
| NO at CHI | CHI | 72.0% | fa2ac63bfb00 | |
| TEN at DAL | DAL | 73.5% | 12f38f4c7874 | |
| TB at DET | DET | 70.1% | 3621ca605615 | |
| ARI at KC | KC | 73.5% | 77e4be27ec27 | |
| JAX at NYG | JAX | 68.9% | 86ac6eedd04d | |
| NYJ at LAC | LAC | 82.4% | 77a51c6aa5d2 | |
| LV at DEN | DEN | 90.8% | c6fffa706ad1 | |
| PIT at PHI | PHI | 65.9% | fcae5e03776a | |
| MIN at SF | SF | 57.1% | 8c288820d6c9 | |
| CIN at WAS | WAS | 53.6% | e592d8c9da22 | |
| GB at LA | LA | 70.8% | b4607bcf7c6b | |
| CHI at DET | DET | 62.4% | 0af24917da1b | |
| PHI at DAL | PHI | 62.5% | d9177cbab509 | |
| KC at BUF | BUF | 75.4% | 1f7ac6635635 | |
| DEN at PIT | DEN | 61.3% | 4c92a5ba1b6d | |
| NO at CIN | CIN | 64.0% | 82f130bf9378 | |
| LV at CLE | CLE | 69.0% | 0b62be31759d | |
| BAL at HOU | HOU | 67.0% | dfbe8625ef9b | |
| NYG at IND | IND | 64.7% | c6499535bce8 | |
| NYJ at MIA | MIA | 73.0% | 540fe0d527bd | |
| ATL at MIN | MIN | 70.4% | 3520938eead9 | |
| TEN at JAX | JAX | 87.0% | 919bc2257841 | |
| WAS at ARI | WAS | 55.8% | a916401961b5 | |
| SEA at SF | SEA | 65.6% | bc63c0285e79 | |
| NE at LAC | NE | 55.6% | c079fd581b24 | |
| CAR at TB | TB | 66.2% | 2788ce35226c | |
| KC at LA | LA | 75.9% | 3aafd66de2f0 | |
| DET at ATL | DET | 59.4% | 8187990bfb47 | |
| JAX at CHI | JAX | 50.6% | 3d3711af77d2 | |
| CIN at CLE | CIN | 54.4% | 6533fd3bcd24 | |
| GB at NO | GB | 59.9% | 6e871e6bda30 | |
| SF at NYG | SF | 66.7% | 5edc8bf275b8 | |
| LAC at TB | LAC | 51.6% | 66288e8e7b6d | |
| WAS at TEN | WAS | 62.8% | 6fd3ff35bec4 | |
| PHI at ARI | PHI | 72.6% | ba411ecc76e9 | |
| MIA at DEN | DEN | 80.5% | b9512a981588 | |
| CAR at MIN | MIN | 77.0% | 8be13331ab5e | |
| BUF at NE | NE | 54.2% | 32185f955ea8 | |
| HOU at PIT | HOU | 60.9% | fac9820bfc57 | |
| DAL at SEA | SEA | 87.9% | 75f09c93d2fa | |
| MIN at NE | NE | 64.1% | 1be995540264 | |
| TB at BAL | BAL | 68.0% | 8acf5cccf435 | |
| NO at CAR | CAR | 54.8% | a11dc9da0064 | |
| ATL at CLE | ATL | 53.2% | 399058054748 | |
| TEN at DET | DET | 86.3% | 0bd0f7483988 | |
| CHI at MIA | CHI | 56.6% | 712dac269659 | |
| DEN at NYJ | DEN | 83.3% | 439b2de5c37f | |
| IND at PHI | PHI | 72.1% | 4f64095ed015 | |
| HOU at WAS | HOU | 68.9% | fa7a14390dc1 | |
| LAC at LV | LAC | 74.4% | 9a17bada801a | |
| KC at CIN | CIN | 53.9% | 78b5ef0c27bb | |
| NYG at SEA | SEA | 90.3% | fafd136f07e1 | |
| LA at SF | LA | 53.7% | 76ba71d2b329 | |
| BUF at GB | BUF | 57.8% | e17ed364ad78 | |
| PIT at JAX | JAX | 67.1% | 695debcc3b50 | |
| SF at LAC | LAC | 51.7% | 45efe360e523 | |
| SEA at PHI | SEA | 64.5% | 518a2ca1414d | |
| CHI at BUF | BUF | 70.4% | c2a8420edd7e | |
| CIN at CAR | CIN | 52.7% | ac3c010ee6c0 | |
| MIA at GB | GB | 69.3% | e412dcb5142a | |
| JAX at HOU | HOU | 63.3% | 0d501172fdd2 | |
| CLE at NYG | NYG | 57.8% | 4d9180335947 | |
| BAL at PIT | BAL | 50.2% | 66a46cf9378f | |
| NO at TB | TB | 64.5% | 4b0eba543d0d | |
| IND at TEN | IND | 64.1% | 108617683d7d | |
| ATL at WAS | WAS | 54.8% | 1f88f00a063d | |
| NYJ at ARI | ARI | 62.9% | 65996382f532 | |
| DAL at LA | LA | 81.0% | 40851baf0ba4 | |
| DEN at LV | DEN | 84.5% | c6ed417854fe | |
| DET at MIN | MIN | 55.3% | 77c8ded037c2 | |
| NE at KC | NE | 61.5% | 207dd1cc5cf5 | |
| HOU at PHI | HOU | 51.4% | 021d2167b47d | |
| GB at CHI | CHI | 56.6% | 70b528cb700c | |
| BUF at DEN | DEN | 56.7% | 23b48977ed87 | |
| LA at SEA | SEA | 68.3% | 918cfce49e24 | |
| TB at ATL | ATL | 55.0% | 55c4c78ae19a | |
| CLE at BAL | BAL | 77.4% | 4a3554867160 | |
| CIN at IND | IND | 55.1% | 77b524bbb5a5 | |
| LAC at MIA | LAC | 56.4% | 1f45e9acd882 | |
| WAS at MIN | MIN | 72.1% | 4761f7deb300 | |
| ARI at NO | NO | 64.5% | b54ce331c098 | |
| NE at NYJ | NE | 81.7% | e6c84597a694 | |
| CAR at PIT | PIT | 70.6% | cd6af0c33d68 | |
| TEN at LV | LV | 55.4% | f8ce14a3f2a4 | |
| SF at KC | SF | 54.4% | f3c81a3433ee | |
| JAX at DAL | JAX | 63.7% | 3ced3993416f | |
| NYG at DET | DET | 78.4% | cd3303e229fa | |
| BAL at CIN | BAL | 55.7% | d4d52d3a6e45 | |
| NO at ATL | ATL | 62.8% | 5d9b0baccd98 | |
| SEA at CAR | SEA | 83.5% | 2b581bd72766 | |
| IND at CLE | IND | 52.7% | c2d263985975 | |
| NYG at DAL | DAL | 62.2% | d1ccc9da7322 | |
| WAS at JAX | JAX | 74.4% | a99c54640842 | |
| KC at LAC | LAC | 62.6% | b7e0771d2588 | |
| BUF at MIA | BUF | 70.2% | 9491c5bb1c31 | |
| DEN at NE | NE | 54.3% | 88ce1e3dc4d1 | |
| MIN at NYJ | MIN | 76.4% | 3cd80b61dc10 | |
| LA at TB | LA | 66.6% | ad2f6df04a88 | |
| PIT at TEN | PIT | 70.6% | 80717baf1b38 | |
| LV at ARI | ARI | 64.9% | 4185c6872f38 | |
| DET at CHI | CHI | 50.9% | fedcaee80645 | |
| PHI at SF | SF | 55.6% | 14aa7dc87b7c | |
| HOU at GB | HOU | 57.3% | 1ad21f503174 | |
| SF at ARI | SF | 71.6% | e1ef765c0d9f | |
| PIT at BAL | BAL | 63.4% | 2f294039bed8 | |
| NYJ at BUF | BUF | 89.9% | cfb3d22d0cb6 | |
| ATL at CAR | ATL | 51.5% | 22842cec425d | |
| CLE at CIN | CIN | 67.3% | 2f9c4678962f | |
| LAC at DEN | DEN | 70.5% | d705f72e2e5f | |
| DET at GB | GB | 51.0% | 139f275cdf29 | |
| TEN at HOU | HOU | 90.1% | b6fd1011ee86 | |
| JAX at IND | JAX | 61.2% | 228365015adb | |
| LV at KC | KC | 79.8% | d0cd7d99f4c2 | |
| SEA at LA | SEA | 55.6% | 24e2d5885bd6 | |
| CHI at MIN | MIN | 61.1% | 3b44ceccab67 | |
| MIA at NE | NE | 78.8% | 3758c263f2c4 | |
| TB at NO | TB | 51.3% | fc87dbbf3bbd | |
| PHI at NYG | PHI | 67.7% | 0569d6bcc352 | |
| DAL at WAS | WAS | 57.9% | 249c2a68717e |
Chain tip: 249c2a68717e0e7ca439c53382c6c215a8e386613c67a0f65e7ff66516c54d94. Each row hash includes the prior row hash, so changing an old value breaks every later link.
What is measured and what is not
The 10.1% skill score and 1.1% calibration error come from a separate walk-forward test over 7,276 completed historical games. They describe that test. The forecasts in this table are the untouched live record and have no results yet.
No win rate, profit claim or selected streak appears here. When games settle, the original probability remains and the result is added beside it.