Recorded before kickoff
The first forecast record
All 16 Week 1 forecasts in the public chain. None is scored yet because the games have not been played.
A probability is not a promise. A favourite can lose without the number being dishonest. Judge forecasts across a large sample, not by one game.
16forecasts recorded
7,276historical test games
10.1%Brier skill vs. base rate
1.1%calibration error
| Kickoff (UTC) | Game | Model favours | Win probability | Row hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA | SEA | 71.0% | a28b4f51c5ef | |
| SF at LA | LA | 66.6% | 9ba797934525 | |
| CHI at CAR | CHI | 61.6% | b5a4f983e548 | |
| TB at CIN | CIN | 56.2% | bfbdafcc13f5 | |
| NO at DET | DET | 76.6% | 763c6925c333 | |
| BUF at HOU | HOU | 56.2% | 70b2d6e23081 | |
| BAL at IND | BAL | 57.4% | 70bdf585ce1d | |
| CLE at JAX | JAX | 80.2% | fb2892b5bb37 | |
| ATL at PIT | PIT | 63.2% | 13b9eca95487 | |
| NYJ at TEN | TEN | 56.0% | 9dd3fa47bef7 | |
| ARI at LAC | LAC | 78.1% | f263357e2679 | |
| MIA at LV | MIA | 63.0% | 9838060ce800 | |
| GB at MIN | MIN | 61.0% | 7d91de1c65c4 | |
| WAS at PHI | PHI | 73.3% | 064495fe8b50 | |
| DAL at NYG | NYG | 51.1% | b13f8ef88111 | |
| DEN at KC | DEN | 63.9% | ca94e6147c63 |
Chain tip: ca94e6147c63b307da7dc6bc0e8016adeebcf839c2fa43682351f07ee304ea59. Each row hash includes the prior row hash, so changing an old value breaks every later link.
What is measured and what is not
The 10.1% skill score and 1.1% calibration error come from a separate walk-forward test over 7,276 completed historical games. They describe that test. The forecasts in this table are the untouched live record and have no results yet.
No win rate, profit claim or selected streak appears here. When games settle, the original probability remains and the result is added beside it.